We project our current mindset and assumptions onto the past and future

Deep Dive

All Biases

Telescoping Effect

We displace recent events backward in time and remote events forward in time when recalling.

Rosy Retrospection

We remember past events more positively than we experienced them at the time.

Hindsight Bias

After learning an outcome, we believe we would have predicted it all along ("I knew it all along").

Outcome Bias

We judge a decision based on its outcome rather than on the quality of the decision at the time it was made.

Moral Luck

We judge people's moral responsibility based on outcomes that were outside their control.

Declinism

We believe that society or institutions are in decline and that the past was better.

Impact Bias

We overestimate the length and intensity of future emotional reactions to events.

Pessimism Bias

We overestimate the likelihood of negative outcomes.

Planning Fallacy

We underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future actions while overestimating their benefits.

Time-Saving Bias

We misestimate the time saved when increasing speed, overestimating savings at low speeds and underestimating at high speeds.

Pro-Innovation Bias

We overvalue an innovation's usefulness while undervaluing its limitations.

Projection Bias

We assume our current preferences, thoughts, and values will remain the same in the future.

Restraint Bias

We overestimate our ability to resist temptation and control impulsive behavior.

Self-Consistency Bias

We incorrectly remember our past attitudes and behaviors as similar to our current ones.