We find stories and patterns even in sparse data

Deep Dive

All Biases

Confabulation

We unconsciously create false memories or explanations to fill gaps in our memory without intending to deceive.

Clustering Illusion

We see patterns in random events or data where none actually exist.

Insensitivity to Sample Size

We fail to appreciate that small samples are less reliable than large samples.

Neglect of Probability

We disregard probability when making decisions under uncertainty, often focusing on outcomes instead.

Anecdotal Fallacy

We give more weight to personal stories and anecdotes than to statistical evidence.

Illusion of Validity

We overestimate our ability to interpret and predict outcomes based on data, especially when information is consistent.

Masked Man Fallacy

We assume that if we know something under one description, we should know it under all descriptions.

Recency Illusion

We believe that something we recently noticed is a recent phenomenon, even if it has existed for a long time.

Gambler's Fallacy

We believe that past random events affect the probability of future random events.

Hot-Hand Fallacy

We believe that a person who has experienced success has a greater chance of further success ("on a streak").

Illusory Correlation

We perceive a relationship between variables when no such relationship exists.

Pareidolia

We perceive meaningful images or patterns (like faces) in random or ambiguous stimuli.

Anthropomorphism

We attribute human characteristics, emotions, or intentions to non-human entities.